WALNUT CREEK, Calif. — AAA projects nearly 49 million Americans will travel more than 50 miles to celebrate Independence Day this summer, the highest forecast for July 4 since AAA began tracking holiday travel in 2000. That’s about 2 million more travelers than the 46.9 million Americans who traveled for the patriotic celebration in 2018 (4% increase), which was the previous national record.
More than 5.68 million Californians are projected to travel over the Fourth of July holiday, also representing a nearly 4% increase from last year, according to the AAA study. That’s also a new state record, breaking California’s previous high of 5.47 million travelers set last year.
“Fourth of July is the busiest summer travel holiday, and more Californians than ever will be traveling for the three-day weekend in 2019,” said Michael Blasky, spokesperson for AAA Northern California. “This follows a decade-long trend of increased summer travel across the U.S., driven largely by a strong economy — especially in California, which remains one of the hottest job markets in the world.”
The Independence Day holiday period is defined as Wednesday, July 3 to Sunday, July 7.
Outsmart the Traffic: Don’t Leave During These “Hot Spots”
AAA predicts the worst traffic in the Bay Area will be on Wednesday, July 3 from 1:30 – 2:30 p.m., as commute traffic begins to merge with the holiday travelers. AAA works with INRIX, a location-based data and analytics firm, to determine the worst traffic “hot spots” in the region.
“For travelers who don’t want to spend their holiday weekend waiting in traffic, AAA recommends reviewing and avoiding traffic hot spots,” said Blasky. “We advise our members to use helpful resources, like the AAA Mobile app, to outsmart Independence Day traffic. Users can map their route, find the cheapest gas along the way, and even find the best restaurants if they need to wait out the traffic.”
| Highway | Distance (miles) | Date | Normal Travel Time (mins) | Predicted Travel Time (mins) | Delay (mins) | % Delay | Avg Speed (MpH) |
| I680 N Milpitas to SR 87 (toward Pleasanton) | 14.02 | July 3 2 pm | 18.76 | 31.87 | 13.11 | 70% | 26 |
| I80 N Emeryville to Hercules | 13.78 | July 3 2:15pm | 17.2 | 27.09 | 9.89 | 58% | 31 |
| US101 N Novato to Petaluma | 13.86 | July 3 2:30 pm | 16.05 | 44.55 | 28.5 | 178% | 19 |
| CA 37 E Novato (US101) to Vallejo | 14.97 | July 3 3:15 pm | 31.77 | 64.98 | 33.21 | 105% | 14 |
| I80 S Hercules to Emeryville | 13.26 | July 3 3:15 pm | 14.29 | 18.24 | 3.95 | 28% | 44 |
| I680 S SR 87 to Milpitas | 13.01 | July 3 5 pm | 11.76 | 30.19 | 18.43 | 157% | 26 |
| CA 37 W Vallejo to Novato (US101) | 14.84 | July 5 2 pm | 18.05 | 28.71 | 10.66 | 59% | 31 |
| US101 S Petaluma to Novato | 14.67 | July 6 8 pm | 14.04 | 21.68 | 7.64 | 54% | 41 |
By the Numbers: California Independence Day Travel Forecast
According to AAA, 5,688,620 Californians are expected to travel over the upcoming holiday weekend, 200,000 more than in 2018.
While Californians were greeted with $4 gasoline prices for Memorial Day, gas prices have fallen significantly in the last six weeks. AAA reported the average price for gasoline was $3.75 on Monday, falling nearly 30 cents in a month and just 10 cents higher than Californians paid last summer. That’s good news for the 4.4 million Californians planning to drive.
Nearly 4 million people will fly to their destination this holiday, including an estimated 762,000 people in California alone. Airfares are trending 10% higher this Independence Day compared to last year, which may be partially due to the Boeing 737 Max grounding, but is also attributable to a good economy and strong demand for air travel, according to AAA.
Top Independence Day Travel Destinations
Fun-in-the-sun locales like Orlando and Honolulu lead the top 10 list of popular destinations for American travelers this Independence Day, based on advance AAA Travel bookings:
1. Orlando, Florida
2. Honolulu, Hawaii
3. Seattle, Washington
4. Las Vegas, Nevada
5. Anaheim, California
6. New York, New York
7. Boston, Massachusetts
8. Maui, Hawaii
9. Anchorage, Alaska
10. Chicago, Illinois
For those travelers planning an international vacation, Europe is the destination of choice. Rome, London, Dublin and Paris are the most popular spots for international vacations this Independence Day, with Vancouver, Canada — a top departure port for Alaskan cruises — rounding out the top five.
According to Hertz, a 40-year AAA partner, the busiest airport pick-up locations for travelers renting a car this Independence Day are expected to be Orlando (MCO), Los Angeles (LAX), Denver (DEN), Las Vegas (LAS) and San Francisco (SFO). The busiest day for rental pick-ups is expected to be Wednesday, July 3.
AAA Members Get More Out of Traveling
AAA offers a variety of travel resources including AAA Mobile, a free app for smartphone users. The app uses GPS navigation to help travelers map a route, locate nearby discounts, summon roadside assistance, find current gas prices and more. Travelers can learn more about this resource at AAA.com/mobile.
AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit. The London-based business information provider teamed with AAA in 2009 to jointly analyze travel trends for major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades.
About AAA Northern California
AAA has a proud history of serving Members for over 100 years. AAA is on a mission to create Members for life by unleashing the innovative spirit of 4,000 employees representing 6 million Members across Northern California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming and Alaska. In addition to legendary roadside assistance, AAA offers home, auto and life insurance, and extraordinary travel services. According to Via Magazine’s Smart Guide, being a AAA Member can save you more than $1,200 a year. Learn more at AAA.com.
